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[NHK] In Mexico, where the cumulative number of people confirmed to be infected with the new coronavirus has exceeded 1.7 million, President Lopez Obrador has been infected ...
Related title : - President of Mexico, new corona test Positive "Symptoms are mild" - President of Mexico infected...
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(Bloomberg) - The Turkish lira fell as much as 17% after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's shock decision to replace the country's central bank governor. The currency traded at 8.3575 per dollar as of 8:47 a.m. in Wellington, erasing more than four months of gains since the appointment of now ex-governor Naci Agbal in November and the fact that the lira is within a few percentage points of a record low reached at the beginning of the month. Erdogan's decision to fire Agbal, who tried to restore the central bank's credibility, is a blow to investor confidence and a cause for concern that the country will once again embark on a low-interest path. The initial backlash exceeded the estimates of some analysts and marks a rapid reversal of investor enthusiasm for the Turkish markets. This now seemingly satiated appetite had helped make the lira the best carry trade currency this year. The money managers welcomed Agbal's drive to raise interest rates and efforts to get inflation under control for some time now and after last Thursday it looked very promising, "said Henrik Gullberg of Coex Partners Ltd., who previously saw that the lira rose above 6.90 per dollar. "This is now ruined. It will be difficult to find lira bulls," he said, adding that the currency could now return to the level it was in when Agbal was appointed. PledgeAgbal's new successor Sahap Kavcioglu promised on Sunday to effectively use monetary policy tools to maintain price stability over time. He also said the bank's interest rate meetings will be happening on schedule. A rush to sell the currency in low liquidity when trading began in Asia was overwhelming, according to one with the Transactions trusted forex traders to have support for the lira from state banks. I expect not to be identified because the person is not allowed to speak publicly. He's not yet sure where the line will be drawn. "The new governor will point out be instructed to use the reserve bonus the former governor left him to ease his entry into the job. " Erdogan ousts the head of the central bank and installs an ally for the interest rate (3) Any weakness in the lira could help inflationary pressures build up in the economy and undermine Turkey's real interest rate, which is currently the highest in emerging markets after Egypt. The lira had strengthened about 18% under Agbal's watch as he ended a complicated financing structure and committed to maintaining price stability. Its abrupt removal follows a 200 basis point rate hike on Thursday, double what a Bloomberg poll expected, given accelerating inflation. What Bloomberg Economics Says: “The blow to the central bank's credibility and independence cannot be overstated. Erdogan has beaten the institution with interventions that have repeatedly failed. The financial markets were ready to give Agbal a chance. His successor will have a hard time rebuilding this trust. “- Ziad Daoud, Chief Economist for Emerging Markets. For a full REACTION click here. While Turkey's high nominal interest rates attract the yield hunters, mercury inflation and the perception that central bank policy was too loose for the prevailing economic conditions has made the lira one of the most volatile currencies in the world. "We must first conclude that Kavcioglu is mandated to keep interest rates as low as possible, "said Cristian Maggio, Head of Emerging Markets at TD Securities in London. "If this hypothesis proves correct, we will not only see looser politics in Turkey in the coming months, but we will likely see a return to policy management through unorthodox measures." Last year, Turkish banks spent more than $ 100 billion on the nation's foreign exchange reserves in support of the falling currency, according to a report by Goldman Sachs Group Inc., prompting the Turkish opposition to investigate the nation's official reserves. By comparison, foreign investors bought $ 4.7 billion net of Turkish stocks and bonds in the months following Agbal's appointment. Overseas inflows into Turkey through swaps amounted to about $ 14 billion over the period, said Istanbul-based economist Haluk Burumcekci. Among those who may be on the wrong side of the trade are Japanese retail investors. Individuals long positions in lira yen were 263,585 contracts on Friday. They have increased by 9% since the beginning of the year. "We'll never know how successful Agbal's approach could have been, but the first signs have been positive," said Emre Akcakmak, portfolio advisor at East Capital in Dubai, who anticipated challenges to intensify in the near future and some of the recent and major inflows of hot To reverse money in the face of the unexpected decision. "Even if the market stabilizes after a while, investors will have little tolerance, if any, in the event of the new governor cutting prices again ahead of time," said Akcakmak. (Updates in prices, comment from second paragraph.) For more articles like this, visit bloomberg.com. Sign up now to stay up to date with the most trusted business news source. © 2021 Bloomberg LP
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